Ben Heller Week 5- Tensions Are Increasing In Ukraine. What Happens Next?
Ben Heller
February 21, 2022
It would appear as though the world is on a trajectory to the second Cold War. As tensions between Russia and the international community increase, the outlook for a diplomatic solution looks grim. This conflict is part of a much longer conflict between Ukraine and Russia, going back all the way to 2014, when the Russian backed Ukrainian president Yanukovych was ousted from power, leading to an invasion of Crimea and the massacre of many Ukrainians. Now, president Zelensky reminds Ukrainians that they must not be deterred by this big bully, and urges the US to put more stake in the game.
A month ago, in the beginning of January, there were approximately 100,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s border. In just a month, that number has risen to 190,000. Officials in the West were worried in January that a Russian offensive would be possible, though the Kremlin assured the international community that this military build up was just an exercise. It has now been more than a month, and the troops do not seem to be disassembling. Russian artillery and troops have gathered en masse along Ukraine’s eastern border. The country has also been using its proxy, Belarus, as a staging ground for possible assaults, as the border security between Ukraine and Belarus is more relaxed. These actions have prompted the international community to predict that Russia will soon launch an offensive, with the possibility of the complete invasion of Ukraine. UK prime minister Boris Johnson warned that a war such as this would not have been seen since 1945.
The first attempt at easing tensions and bringing peace came from France. French PM Emannuel Macron sat down with Putin last week with the hope of finding an amicable agreement that would end with the Russian troops leaving the border. Following the talks, Russian president Vladimir Putin claimed that the talks were not productive, leading to further worries from western countries. In the last week, satellite imagery has shown Russian tanks and units being posted on the Ukrainian border. Ukraine also fears that Russian separatists living in Ukraine might join the conflict and wreak havok on civilian populations. The affair has turned into somewhat of a propaganda campaign, with separatists and Russia warning Russian nationalists in Ukraine to leave for fear of persecution. Some who have left, following the orders of Russia, now find themselves in a situation where they might not be able to return to Ukraine, even if there is no conflict.Additionally, although Russia only supplies 1 out of every 10 oil barrels worldwide, other oil-producing countries might not have enough spare production capacity to supply the world with oil. An embargo on Russian oil would be felt internationally with large hikes in oil prices.
The US has, until now, been hesitant to throw troops behind an initiative against Russia. The looming fear has, in the past, been a useful deterrent for conflict between the two superpowers. However, now that Russia does not appear to be backing down, if military action is not taken, countless civilians will perish and Russia could come to increase its influence on western European countries, which would disrupt international trade. Now the US has to choose between continuing to pursue diplomatic options, or send more troops to NATO, in order to defend the interests of Ukraine and democracy
“For our right to live in the kind of Ukraine we want. Not the kind into which Putin and Russia wants to drive us to,”
-Iryna Horbachova, Ukrainian Expat
I believe that an attack is imminent on Ukraine at this point. However, I think the best possible outcome is some sort of peace deal brokered between Russia and Ukraine.
ReplyDelete